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Re:Invite HN: The Algorithmic NCAA Bracket Challenge by jraines on Tuesday March 17, 2009 @08:02PM (#520860)
Mine is going to be based on the "Wages of Wins"-emphasized stats of FG%, FT Attempts, Turnovers, and Offensive Rebounds.

If you want to get a little more hardcore, check out HN user lance's post about using Logistic Regression Markov Chains for your bracketology:

http://blog.weatherby.net/2009/03/using-lmrc-to-pick-ncaa-to...

Re:Invite HN: The Algorithmic NCAA Bracket Challenge by lanceweatherby on Tuesday March 17, 2009 @09:23PM (#520946)
The Logistic Regression Markov Chain developed at Georgia Tech to predict results of NCAA tournament games does a good job at picking both upsets and late round game winners. A bit soft in the middle rounds.