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Re:Massive glacier collapse by justsee on Monday February 04, 2013 @02:55PM (#5166650)
> 3. A majority (but not a consensus, IMO) extending that to humans being the most direct and primary cause of warming;

That's just flat out wrong. There is a scientific consensus that humans are responsible for global warming. To elaborate: "That humans are causing global warming is the position of the Academies of Science from 19 countries plus many scientific organizations that study climate science. More specifically, around 95% of active climate researchers actively publishing climate papers endorse the consensus position." [0]

This is based on models that have been refined over decades, and data and analysis from multiple separate scientific disciplines that agree with each other.

Your resignation that we don't 'know' (which alludes to an unscientific requirement for 100% certainty), and that climate science is 'still very much a work in progress' betrays a lack of knowledge about scientific models in general. It is worth reading this section on climate models to understand their purpose, value, and reliability [1].

[0] http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-scientific-co...

[1] http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-models-intermediate....

Re:Massive glacier collapse by run4yourlives on Monday February 04, 2013 @03:37PM (#5166937)
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/a7/Climate_scienc...

Sorry, but there is a significant minority that in my mind prevents a consensus from existing. Majority is 84%, consensus is in the high 90s for me.

Take away vocal proponents, and you can clearly see that there is still room for debate here.

Re:Massive glacier collapse by justsee on Tuesday February 05, 2013 @02:39AM (#5169643)
This is a tired, erroneous argument which surprisingly still gets dragged out, and was commented on back in 2004 [0]:

"The skeptic attitude to consensus usually starts with “there is no consensus”. That’s wrong, and they usually retreat from it to “but consensus science is meaningless”, and/or “consensus has nothing to do with science”. The latter is largely true but irrelevant. The existence of the consensus doesn’t do a lot to determine what science is done; it doesn’t prevent contrary lines being explored. But the consensus view does come into the tricky interface between science and policy, and science and the media."

[0] http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/just-w...

Re:Massive glacier collapse by run4yourlives on Tuesday February 05, 2013 @03:14AM (#5169705)
There are five seperate studies on the image, and most of them show no more than 85% give or take. If you have something that shows otherwise (aside from ad hominem) I'd love to see it.
Re:Massive glacier collapse by justsee on Tuesday February 05, 2013 @03:00PM (#5172892)
An uploaded image to Wikipedia is a very weak source to assert an opinion not held by the scientific community (that there is no scientific consensus).

Also, I've been discussing the arguments all along, not sure what the reference to 'ad hominem' is about.

Here's the actual Wikipedia page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_c...

It mentions: "No scientific body of national or international standing has maintained a dissenting opinion; the last was the American Association of Petroleum Geologists, which in 2007 updated its 1999 statement rejecting the likelihood of human influence on recent climate with its current non-committal position."

Maybe the American Association of Petroleum Geologists made that image you reference before changing their position. I don't know, it's completely out of context.

Re:Massive glacier collapse by ghshephard on Monday February 04, 2013 @09:36PM (#5168690)
There is also a bit of echo chamber, the high numbers are for "Most Published" authors - and, in theory, it's a lot easier to publish something supporting Global Warming right now.

I'd agree- significant majority, but not a consensus right now.

Re:Massive glacier collapse by will_brown on Monday February 04, 2013 @04:43PM (#5167350)
In terms of its contribution to global warming Methane is 26 times more destructive than CO2. Believe it or not on a daily basis an average Cow emits the same amount of green house pollutants that contribute to Global Warming as an average car. US Food and Agricultural Organization expects methane emissions to increase 60% by 2030.

I understand the logic but I find it counter-intuitive that pollutants emitted from Cows (burps and farts), are contributed to human behavior. Specifically, Agriculture accounts for 14% of Green House Gas, and a majority of it is from Methane emission. Similar to our trying to reduce CO2 emissions from cars, humans are trying to reduce Methane emissions from Cows including genetic modifications and harvesting the Methane to power the farms.

So I personally think the idea of measuring "human contribution" is complex, especially when Cow farts and burbs are contributed to human activity. That said whether or not there is consensus that Human activity is responsible for global warming it does not matter, there is certainly consensus that Human's are the only ones who have a chance at addressing global warming, unless unknown to us the Cows are currently convening in secrete meetings to discuss how they might better regulate their own emissions of Methane and Ammonia because their contribution to global warming is weighing so heavy on their conscience.

Re:Massive glacier collapse by mncolinlee on Monday February 04, 2013 @06:01PM (#5167825)
Most cow flatulence is the result of human activity. Before cows were domesticated, there was almost no chance cows would ever reach these ridiculous herd sizes in nature (barring natural selection for KILLER COWS).

Also, they did not eat corn or soy-based diets much in nature, which both cause increased methane emissions. Alfalfa and flaxseed are proven to reduce emissions.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/05/us/05cows.html?pagewanted=...

Re:Massive glacier collapse by khuey on Monday February 04, 2013 @05:14PM (#5167543)
The vast majority of cows exist only to feed humans. Saying that pollutants emitted from cows shouldn't be attributed to human behavior is like saying that pollutants emitted from cars shouldn't be attributed to human behavior: complete nonsense.
Re:Massive glacier collapse by diminoten on Monday February 04, 2013 @05:43PM (#5167717)
It's not complete nonsense, as cows aren't human, and cows produce methane, therefore cows are nonhuman sources of methane.

I agree with you that cow methane is our doing ultimately, but to say it's 'complete nonsense' is dishonest.

Re:Massive glacier collapse by sophacles on Monday February 04, 2013 @06:53PM (#5168092)
To give credence to the notion that "cow methane is not humans' fault" is also utterly disingenuous. "ultimately our doing" also suggests there is a long and arduous causality chain which equally absurd. Humans raise cows on diets cows would not choose for themselves (and resulting in more cow methane) and in numbers that the cows would not be able to maintain on their own. Cow methane is our fault in the exact same way that burning stuff and releasing CO2 is our fault. Seriously are you going to say burning coal is not a human source of methane, or at least sit around and say "be nice to the idiot arguing it?"

Sorry, your whole point is more intellectually dishonest than you accuse the "complete nonsense" phrase of being.

Re:Massive glacier collapse by diminoten on Tuesday February 05, 2013 @09:31AM (#5170771)
What do you think my point is? I feel you're misrepresenting me.
Re:Massive glacier collapse by grannyg00se on Monday February 04, 2013 @06:05PM (#5167857)
A coal plant isn't human, and coal plants produce CO2, therefore coal plants are nonhuman sources of CO2.
Re:Massive glacier collapse by will_brown on Monday February 04, 2013 @06:38PM (#5168020)
But for humans coal plants and their emissions would not exist. But for Humans cars and their emissions would not exist. But for Humans a population of 60 million American wild Buffalo might still exist.

I did not post to be controversial, I was not suggesting humans are not responsible for Global Warming, however, the contribution of humans to global warming is not always black and white. Cars and coal plants? Yes, black and white humans are responsible. Cows? Yes and No, sure you can count the 1.5 billion domesticated cattle as human behavior, but on the other hand 20% of all cattle are found in India where they are not domesticated or raised to be eaten. However, I suppose it is a matter of time before someone makes an analogous argument to the agricultural argument, if you can argue Humans raise cows to be feed on therefore their pollution is attributed to humans, then you can argue that if Humans raise cows to be worshiped their emissions are still attributable to humans....Screw it....whether you drive a car, operate a coal factory, spray an areosol can, eat a steak or passively worship cows you are 100% responsible for global warming.

Re:Massive glacier collapse by ekianjo on Monday February 04, 2013 @10:23PM (#5168832)
> This is based on models that have been refined over decades, and data and analysis from multiple separate scientific disciplines that agree with each other.

Models on decades when considering climate change are meaningless: we are talking about extrapolation, going into a warmer world for which we have no models working so far. Beyond that point it's just supposition.

> climate science is 'still very much a work in progress'

It is very much a work in progress, since there are clear setbacks from the reality vs what has been predicted so far.

See this - do you see a huge global warming effect? http://h16free.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/ipcc_fig1-4_mo...

The recent CERN CLOUD experiments results show that many climate scientists seem to forget that there's a huge fireball in the skies that may also have an impact on our climate. It's not all about CO2.