That prediction (or at least that article) was written in March, and Opus 4.5 was released in November. For my team at least, that was pretty much the point at which 90% of our code became machine written. So that would mean he was only off by 2 months. Maybe 4 or 5 months at most for the point where it became true for basically the entire software industry.

I’m not saying he’ll be right about this one, not it’s a not ridiculous to claim he want fundamentally right about code.

90% of the codebase I work in is still not written by machines, so ... he's still wrong?

The rest of the computing world has had machines generating code since the 1940s when the first assembly languages, and thus assemblers, were created. What sees you cling to the raw bits and bytes still, rapidly approaching a century later? Amish?

How about your competition? What percentage of their code are they still hand-authoring?

They, like us, are in a sector where quality of results matters very much. My id wants it to be very low, my superego wants it to be very high.

Are we counting code that’s pre-2025?

Writing means new code, not old code.

And if you've been looking at Github's blog posts on their exponential contribution growth for the past 6 months, it's obviously come true this year.

No, he's not wrong. Answering your question with a 'yes' is like a bicyclist claiming that people can't move at 60+ miles an hour in a car.

The small percentage of people who use AI produce vast quantities of code (the average lifespan of which is a matter of days).

You're just obsolete. That's all.

Because he was slightly optimistic but he was able to see what's coming.

and if you think off by 1-2 years is a big deal I am not sure what to say.

That's... pretty much how it's played out.

90% of the code will be written by ai in 6 months.

Hmm. People making fun of the idea that 90% of code can be written by machine.

Now you come and nitpick about if it is 89% or 7 months instead of 6. Lmao.

If AI can get any of those in even 20 years, that's still a big win.

The pessimistic attitude here is revolting.

And no, nobody is forcing you to buy anthropic shares if you think they are full of shit. Anyone complaining is either don't have money to buy it or just jealous of other people buying it and price going up than the ones they hold.