5 years ago saying LLMs will solve a Millenium Prize math problem in the next 5 years was "some kind of mental derangement"

I suppose you aren’t aware that an LLM has not officially solved a Millennium problem yet?

But it is saying LLMs will solve all Millenium Prize math problems and more. AI may cure one cancer here and two heart diseases there in 10 years, but it is no way that it would cure ALL diseases, which may have vastly different complexity that we can't even understand today.

The body is a complicated machine. Why can't we fix it? because we don't understand how it works with enough precision. But there is no magic to it. once you have a clear understanding it's just a complicated piece of machinery, and once you also have tools precise enough to operate on it, you can just fix it.

Our lack of understanding is a mix of lack of data, and lack of intelligence applied to data in order to parse it appropriately. Let's remember for a moment AlphaFold, that solved a problem considered by some even theoretically intractable. One year before we were convinced we were far off from a solution, the year after it was solved.

We have huge amounts of data about human body, at the scale at which it works (~proteins), it's at least reasonable to think that the bottleneck is not data, but intelligence. If it's data, a super intelligence can develop better instruments to collect data at a faster rate and precision. Consider the historical cost for DNA sequencing. Faster rate of improvements even compared to the Moore's Law of the golden days.

Do we have a guarantee that in the next 10 years we'll be able to crack all those problems and have a cure to all diseases? no. Is it unreasonable to think we will? I'd argue it's not. It's for sure not "mental derangement".

Do I personally think we will crack all those? Well, no, because I think AI will kill us all and just focus on its own goals. But under the hypothesis that we align it, yes.