I understand his assertion, and I can make up an argument that fits it too, probably a few arguments that aren't even compatible with each other, but what you said isn't what he said, you are just assuming all of this, and also nowhere here does it explain how this fits an analogy of "post nut clarity".
1) There was a false narrative called tokenmaxxing whereby one is more productive by spending more tokens
2) This narrative was fueled by discount prices on tokens (which still happens to this day on subscriptions)
3) There is a point where we collectively realize that tokenmaxxing was a state of mind that is not rational
4) We will then pay API prices because LLMs are obviously amazing but no one will offer subscriptions
5) API costs of Opus 5.5 and Fable tier become uneconomical
6) That leaves us in Sonnet/Haiku tier