I agree, I think the bigger threat to them is the neoclouds serving flash models like GLM 5.3 flash or DS 4.1 flash 1017, those are very good, very fast, and very cheap. With zero data retention and less guardrails they become an obvious choice for more work, and enterprises can post train on top of them.

That being said, their own small models (Haiku/Luna) have gotten very good as well..

I really don't see why by this time next year most people won't be paying pennies for models in this tier and getting the performance we'd expect from current Opus/Sol models, e.g. good enough for 95% of what you need