I think the models themselves are "good enough", but people are underestimating how much the integration with tools effects the quality. And OpenAI/Anthropic are lightyears ahead there.

I don’t think these integrations are much of a moat at all, unless I misunderstood your point.

Pi and OpenCode are just as capable as Claude Code when it comes to integrations?

Fair counterpoint. But people still use Windows. The market is huge for people who want a subscription and a ready-to-go solution.

Very true. I think for your run of the mill user they’ll reign supreme. But for companies on Bedrock/OpenRouter already, I wouldn’t be surprised if they switched to open weight and open source harnesses.

You can easily hook local models into CLaude Code e.g

Considering most corporations are the ones who buy the most tokens, this is relevant because:

- They can afford to dish out hardware to run models locally - They can afford to deploy even larger open weight models on their own infra, even if they’re not local

In addition, the writing is on the wall. These open weight models are getting good enough and small enough with each iteration. Hardware will (hopefully) come down in price eventually so a layman could deploy these locally.

As AI boosters love to say: [Local models are] “the worst they’ll ever be right now!”

Everyone was moving to the Cloud well before AI, why would they go back to on-prem now that hardware is even more expensive?

I’m not saying or thinking they’d start buying up bare metal. By hardware I meant issuing MacBooks with the latest chips or with bigger GPUs.

By infra I more just meant it generally. Whether it’s bare metal, cloud, Bedrock/OpenRouter etc.

I agree, I think the bigger threat to them is the neoclouds serving flash models like GLM 5.3 flash or DS 4.1 flash 1017, those are very good, very fast, and very cheap. With zero data retention and less guardrails they become an obvious choice for more work, and enterprises can post train on top of them.

That being said, their own small models (Haiku/Luna) have gotten very good as well..

I really don't see why by this time next year most people won't be paying pennies for models in this tier and getting the performance we'd expect from current Opus/Sol models, e.g. good enough for 95% of what you need