I think this is a bit misleading. Less than 10% of phase 1 trials end up passing phase 3 and going to market. You can claim that means the challenge is verifying how well they work since you need to run a bunch of phase 3 trials but I think the real challenge is finding a phase 1 target that will end up passing phase 3. Doing a better job of quickly eliminating bad targets is the real challenge. If AI turns that 10% number into 20% then you can get twice as many marketable drugs for the same number of trials. I guess another way of putting it is that finding stuff that has a small chance of working is not a challenge, but finding stuff that has a good chance of working is a huge challenge.