Re:Nvidia prepares to fire CEO Jensen Huang, WSJ reports
by xvector on Thursday November 12, 2026 @03:17AM
(#50464430)
2030 is an eternity. We will almost certainly have advanced AGI before then. Read the METR report.
They will build this capacity anyways, delaying them to 2030 would be a massive win.
Re:Nvidia prepares to fire CEO Jensen Huang, WSJ reports
by notnullorvoid on Thursday November 12, 2026 @06:54AM
(#50465883)
Which METR report? The one about Anthropic's acceleration rate for improved benchmark results, that put the value at anywhere between 1.1 and 3x per year.
I don't know what your definition of "advanced AGI" is, but if it's the target for a final "win" to the AI race, I think you need to reassess what the current capabilities really are, we're still in the infancy or toddler stages of AGI at best. You should also take a look at how fast Chinese labs are closing the gap, with greater efficiency compared to US labs.
The US mindset of abundance and "scaling laws" is not going to have them win the race. It's not a sustainable strategy.
Their main problem is not the lower efficiency, but the limited capacity of production, caused by the fact that they cannot buy SOTA manufacturing equipment.
This will indeed slow them down for some time, but it is likely that sometime between 2030 and 2032 they will become able to use EUV lithography in mass production, eliminating the principal advantage of US companies like NVIDIA. After that, they will no longer be constrained by the capacity of production for GPUs and CPUs.
I consider rather doubtful that USA will possess advanced AGI before that.
Even with the smaller amount of GPUs that they can use, I do not see any sign that they will trail by much the AI research from USA.