Yes, that's what they are claiming; that the full(er) precision models get heavily quantized and/or distilled to lesser, "nerfed" models and requests get routed to them based on load, time since release, time to new model release, and reading chicken bones.

There is no proof, the frontier labs deny it, and certainly it's not happening on hosts like Azure, Amazon, and etc.. The claim is that it's "trivial" to detect observation, so they serve the normal model if you try to measure it..

Basically the conspricy theory is:

* OpenAI/Anthropic nerf their models regularly to reduce compute demand

* It's impossible to measure and thus prove