> Is this a spherical cow?

Yes.

> I have so many questions.

I'm not saying this is correct. I'm just saying a lot of other people believe this. If they are wrong then they will lose a lot of money. If they are correct, most of them will lose lots of money but one of them will make money.

I agree with you that the chance of "everyone is a loser" is higher than the current Zeitgeist believes.