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Re:I'm Not Convinced the AI Bubble Exists by dragontamer on Monday November 09, 2026 @10:20AM (#50426861)
Lets say the total market for an arbitrary winner-take-all industry is $100 Billion/year in profits. Just so that we have a round number. And for another round number, lets assume the fair market PE ratio is 20x. This over-simplification would then have a fair market valuation of $2 Trillion total.

Just simple napkin math.

Now, lets say there are 5 companies competing to be the winner. Only one can be the winner, but all 5 are trying to be the winner. How much should each company individually spend?

Well... starting-bid is $2 Trillion, or ~$10 Trillion in the aggregate. Its basically the waste of competition. Because everyone is vying for monopoly power, the only fair for them to all invest over $2 Trillion in the hopes of being the dominant one at the end. Even if $8 Trillion is wasted, that's "other companies", your competitors, who lose out.

But wait: if one company spends $2.1 Trillion, that one company likely becomes the winner and the other 4 companies lose out. So then another company spends $2.2 Trillion, to get ahead of that war. Etc. etc.

Re:I'm Not Convinced the AI Bubble Exists by kaoD on Monday November 09, 2026 @12:34PM (#50428706)
[delayed]
Re:I'm Not Convinced the AI Bubble Exists by dragontamer on Monday November 09, 2026 @04:07PM (#50432143)
> Is this a spherical cow?

Yes.

> I have so many questions.

I'm not saying this is correct. I'm just saying a lot of other people believe this. If they are wrong then they will lose a lot of money. If they are correct, most of them will lose lots of money but one of them will make money.

I agree with you that the chance of "everyone is a loser" is higher than the current Zeitgeist believes.