[delayed]
Re:I'm Not Convinced the AI Bubble Exists
by dragontamer on Monday November 09, 2026 @04:07PM
(#50432143)
> Is this a spherical cow?
Yes.
> I have so many questions.
I'm not saying this is correct. I'm just saying a lot of other people believe this. If they are wrong then they will lose a lot of money. If they are correct, most of them will lose lots of money but one of them will make money.
I agree with you that the chance of "everyone is a loser" is higher than the current Zeitgeist believes.
Just simple napkin math.
Now, lets say there are 5 companies competing to be the winner. Only one can be the winner, but all 5 are trying to be the winner. How much should each company individually spend?
Well... starting-bid is $2 Trillion, or ~$10 Trillion in the aggregate. Its basically the waste of competition. Because everyone is vying for monopoly power, the only fair for them to all invest over $2 Trillion in the hopes of being the dominant one at the end. Even if $8 Trillion is wasted, that's "other companies", your competitors, who lose out.
But wait: if one company spends $2.1 Trillion, that one company likely becomes the winner and the other 4 companies lose out. So then another company spends $2.2 Trillion, to get ahead of that war. Etc. etc.