Job displacement is real, but based on real world usage, it would owe just as much to Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek, Kimi, and whatever else that is close to frontier, but cheaper.
Sure that argument is a lot stronger. But the market might be big enough for Gemini, Anthropic and OpenAI.
Grok is a lot worse then Frontier and still is owned by a company for very little trust.
The chinese model are intersting, they do leverage Frontiermodels to train, this might be a moat for a while.
If in a couple years they're losing their jobs because of Anthropic/OpenAI/10+ other enterprise token resellers using open models then their value proposition is much weaker even if people are still losing jobs.
If you have in every single industry AI tokens, it will replace wages. In USA alone thats 15 Trillion. If its just 10% the USA market alone are 1.5T without the value added.
My company is building an agentic layer in its product, google and the other hyperscalers do that too.
I already want to get rid of one person in my team because he was slow before but was able to contribute something, now I want to have his position as AI tokens.
No i don't say that 10% of the entire USA market is gonna go to anthropic.
I said what the market overall could look like. USA is not the only country out there.
[1] Say >10% of people of employable age suddenly becomes superfluous with not much prospect of finding new jobs (since AI eats those too).
But no one knows if there is a ceiling or progress might slow down massivly.
Is warning people so wrong if you interpolate the current progress and just look ahead a few years? Might just be as stupid as some North Korean/Russian hacker throwing some abliberated model against some computer system and having some cascading effect on water or energy grid.
For plenty of people AI already took their jobs, jobs they liked and enjoyed doing.
I'm lost on how you can be snarky while others already are loosing their jobs because of Anthropic/OpenAI