Anthropic IPO Buyers See Valuation as Low as $1.1T

Re:Anthropic IPO Buyers See Valuation as Low as $1.1T by superchicken099 on Friday November 06, 2026 @02:46PM (#50397397)

As AI grows in capability it will be trusted to do more of the work it already does and also break into new fields. Also, there are many who have never interacted with a chatbot. There is an entire world of potential customers out there. It can be quite a villainous business model but look at what Facebook did in Africa with their sponsored ISP and also what they’re doing with Meta Muse. Demand for AI usage will skyrocket.

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Re:Anthropic IPO Buyers See Valuation as Low as $1.1T by bryanlarsen on Friday November 06, 2026 @03:00PM (#50397592)

But will it increase by 10000X, as I back of the envelope calculated it would require to justify Anthropic's $2T valuation in the face of quickly dropping token prices?

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Re:Anthropic IPO Buyers See Valuation as Low as $1.1T by handfuloflight on Friday November 06, 2026 @03:13PM (#50397777)

It only needs to increase just enough to keep the forward looking carrot to be continued to be dangled.

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Re:Anthropic IPO Buyers See Valuation as Low as $1.1T by rhdunn on Friday November 06, 2026 @03:20PM (#50397880)

Chatbots aren't a money maker. Each interaction is likely to be 1-2K tokens at most. AWS Bedrock prices 11K token input and 4K output for a total of $0.184 using on-demand usage [1]. So for normal usage (occasionally asking questions) you are looking at less than $1 per month for a person.

Using the models for data processing (a lot of input/output tokens) and for role-playing will use more tokens and thus cost more. However, those use cases are not common when comparing the percentage of the user base.

The money maker is agentic coding where people get the models to perform long-running tasks. This is why Open AI and Anthropic have been pushing these hard. However, there is pushback on this, especially among businesses looking for value for money/cut costs [2] like Apple [3], [4].

[1] https://aws.amazon.com/bedrock/pricing/

[2] https://www.ibm.com/think/insights/tokenmaxxing-dead-long-li...

[3] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-11-04/apple-cut...

[4] https://9to5mac.com/2026/11/04/report-apple-reduces-employee...

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Re:Anthropic IPO Buyers See Valuation as Low as $1.1T by gamblor956 on Friday November 06, 2026 @03:22PM (#50397920)

Also, there are many who have never interacted with a chatbot.

Something like 99% of the people who have interacted with an LLM chatbot lose interest after a month.

100% of people who have to interact with an LLM chatbot taking the place of a human customer sales or service agent jump to a competitor.

Outside of the tech bubble, the LLM hype is already over.

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Re:Anthropic IPO Buyers See Valuation as Low as $1.1T by famouswaffles on Friday November 06, 2026 @03:54PM (#50398388)

>Something like 99% of the people who have interacted with an LLM chatbot lose interest after a month.

This is not remotely true. It literally couldn't be true, considering Open AI have 1.2 Billion weekly active ChatGPT users.

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Re:Anthropic IPO Buyers See Valuation as Low as $1.1T by akkad33 on Friday November 06, 2026 @04:11PM (#50398609)

I use Gemini instead of Google most of the time and I think most people now go to chatgpt or gemini for things they used to Google.

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Re:Anthropic IPO Buyers See Valuation as Low as $1.1T by SkiFire13 on Friday November 06, 2026 @03:51PM (#50398337)

> As AI grows in capability

The issue is, at some point for AI to grow more in usage it will need to decrease in cost.

We are already seeing this with some companies reducing AI usage or moving to open models due to high costs.

AI will surely boom there's no doubt on that, but it won't necessarily produce the revenue that Anthropic investors hope for.

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Re:Anthropic IPO Buyers See Valuation as Low as $1.1T by jatora on Friday November 06, 2026 @04:21PM (#50398693)

3 companies have moved.

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Re:Anthropic IPO Buyers See Valuation as Low as $1.1T by verdverm on Friday November 06, 2026 @04:52PM (#50399000)

open weight models wouldn't be processing more tokens if that were true

many companies are now using both, it's only been a few months since it really picked up

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Re:Anthropic IPO Buyers See Valuation as Low as $1.1T by lbreakjai on Saturday November 07, 2026 @02:25AM (#50402424)

There's an entire universe of companies outside the MAG7 or VC-backed startups. I used to work for a US company, employing 60.000 people worldwide, which made the switch. But you will never hear about it because it's not a "tech" company.

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Re:Anthropic IPO Buyers See Valuation as Low as $1.1T by SkiFire13 on Saturday November 07, 2026 @06:29AM (#50403602)

And hopefully they will show that having faster and unlimited tokens at 10x cheaper costs will be a winning move.

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Re:Anthropic IPO Buyers See Valuation as Low as $1.1T by falserum on Friday November 06, 2026 @05:37PM (#50399436)

Depends on the price.

Do we know if current pricing is sustainable?

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Re:Anthropic IPO Buyers See Valuation as Low as $1.1T by jasomill on Sunday November 08, 2026 @07:29AM (#50412693)

If this is a consensus viewpoint, it'll likely be priced into the IPO.

I'm cautiously bullish on AI in general, and I wouldn't touch an AI stock with a 100m pole, because there are way too many uncautiously bullish investors in the market.

We have, for example, no idea what the long-term implications of AI effectively training on its own output is. Recursive self-improvement is not a law of nature. If anything, the opposite: the overwhelming majority of species are extinct. Evolution is as much a story of dead ends as survival of the fittest. So betting on any one narrow path of AI development to survive seems highly suspect.

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