Re:Anthropic reports $17B in Q3 revenue, commitments of $895...
by Wheen on Monday November 02, 2026 @12:09PM
(#50339985)
> [Anthropic] basically just need to prevent it from absolutely collapsing and hope margins hold up against open weight models.
There are so many variables involved that are outside their control. If GPU/RAM demand dries up (or supply increases), for example, local models are suddenly a threat in addition to hosted open weight models.
The quality there is already good enough. I've been 100% local for personal projects since Qwen3.8 Flash dropped. It's not as nice an experience as Claude I use for work, but it gets the job done and I fully control my data and can do whatever I want with it.
Re:Anthropic reports $17B in Q3 revenue, commitments of $895...
by noelherrick on Monday November 02, 2026 @12:58PM
(#50340796)
You just made me wonder if part of the buy-up of RAM by OpenAI and other spend on GPUs and datacenters is literally trying to weaken the value proposition of open weight models.
Re:Anthropic reports $17B in Q3 revenue, commitments of $895...
by jononor on Monday November 02, 2026 @01:14PM
(#50341056)
Not just against open weight models and not just on hardware I think. Also on token subsidies etc. OpenAI and Anthropic both seem to be aiming to outspend everyone else, so that they can be the last ones standing. It is a risky move, especially since everyone else includes Google and Microsoft, players that have both existing surplus cashflow, solid warchests, and excellent distribution channels. But all outcomes are open still...
Re:Anthropic reports $17B in Q3 revenue, commitments of $895...
by 12_throw_away on Monday November 02, 2026 @03:59PM
(#50343654)
They are absolutely trying to deny their competitors necessary hardware, or at least drive up their costs substantially. And users running local models are, well, not not competitors ...
This should help build some intuition and establish a baseline for what the $2T valuation means.
If you buy at $2T Anthropic needs to be worth about $3T by 2030 for a normal market return. That's ~25x P/E and ~$120B/year of profit.
That could be something like $400B of revenue at 30% net margins, $300B at 40%, or $600B at 20%.
It would take 1.7x revenue growth a year to get from today’s $68B run-rate to $400B by 2030. Anthropic's current growth rate is ~4.7x a year. Anthropic doesn't need to maintain that, they basically just need to prevent it from absolutely collapsing and hope margins hold up against open weight models.
You could look at this and say "yeah that's plausible" or "I highly doubt they achieve that" but it's hyperbolic to say its actually impossible they can meet this valuation, definitive proof of bubble, cant be worth this unless they can create God, etc.