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Re:Eight Bits of Trust; eMudhra's CA keys cracked in millise... by palata on Wednesday October 21, 2026 @05:23PM (#50187844)
I think they are right and you are wrong. If I understand properly you say:

"Playing roulette, in isolation after RED - RED - RED - RED - RED, there is not a higher chance of getting BLACK than RED in the next run. But in practice, one would be correct in concluding that it will probably be BLACK. The proof is that in our test, the next run gave BLACK".

Said differently, it was not particularly unlikely that the number would be 4. But maybe it got the attention of the person who decided to try assuming that it was a mistake, and they were indeed lucky.

Re:Eight Bits of Trust; eMudhra's CA keys cracked in millise... by gizzlon on Thursday October 22, 2026 @02:03AM (#50191721)
I think it's more like seeing RED - RED - RED - RED - RED and concluding the roulette is broken
Re:Eight Bits of Trust; eMudhra's CA keys cracked in millise... by palata on Thursday October 22, 2026 @06:41AM (#50193584)
My understanding is more that it's like seeing RED - RED - RED - RED - RED and wondering if the roulette is broken, testing it, and realising it is.

The hypothesis is "I see a small number, I can test if it is broken or not... oh it is". Could totally have been "no it's all good, just happened to be a small number".