I wouldn't bet a single dime on that, especially with the advancements in robotics (have you seen the Chinese robots?)
Especially if the timeline is 40 years (as opposed to, say... 4.) I have no doubt AI-assisted robotics development would have solved the plumber and electrician jobs in a decade or two.
I’d say if we have robots that can install AC in any old european building, then we have reached both AGI and AGLabour.
But I’m not sure it will take 40 years. I’m quite sure Astra could figure it out, it’s just too slow and robots are too weak. The speed will improve, and robots may lag shortly thereafter but by not much. I give it 1-2 years for AI, and 5-10 years for robots tops (perhaps even quicker).
Re:What should we tell our students?
by tonyedgecombe on Friday October 09, 2026 @07:52AM
(#50019201)
This may well be offset by the flood of people entering those trades. Likely the days of tradespeople earning high salaries will be over as well.
Yes, this is likely true. Plumber & Electrician on existing construction will likely take a long time (relatively speaking) to automate. And even if we end up being able to do it, it could be that humans will be the cheapest option when it comes to a lot of manual jobs especially given that there will be a large supply of unemployed humans in many scenarios.