Why is it likely ? Why not Russia ? I’ve heard it’s Russia ?

Because Epstein had ties to Israel and not to Russia. There might be a similar ring run by Russia as well, who knows.

Didn't he have ties to basically all powerful people? Is there something special about his Israel ties that are different to his Bill Gates ties?

I thought this was interesting, from Al Jazeera to boot:

Political Reactions: While critics and unverified intelligence memos pointed to the deep relationship as a sign of state ties, current Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly dismissed the notion, stating on social media that Epstein's close ties to Barak (a political opponent of Netanyahu) actually "proves the opposite" of Epstein working for the Israeli state.

He has ties to all powerful people as his clients, but he has ties to Israel that look closer to them being his employer.

Without some pretty good evidence, it sounds like conjecture, which is fine, but nothing of substance is being presented here.

Of course. A very valid way to view it, and the same way I would've viewed it in 2016 if you told me there was a global elite pedophile ring that helped get Trump elected.

Epstein definitely had ties to Russia. I don't know how to assess how important those were but they did exist