> You're out of 3 dollars for something with a chance of 1/4 (in the other 3/4 you're being payed $1)
You're out $2 (since you get the $1 from the other players at the beginning, no matter what)
Re:Coin Puzzle: Predict the Other's Coin
by raverbashing on Sunday December 30, 2012 @08:17AM
(#4985590)
Humm makes sense =) Knew I was forgetting something!
- Assuming everybody is honest
The chance of A getting the guess right is 0.5, same for B, so the joint probability should be 0.25 (or 1/4)
You're out of 2 dollars (3 - the 1 you get) for something with a chance of 1/4 (in the other 3/4 you're being payed $1) SO
Looks like it's worth playing.
Expected losses: 2 * 1/4 < Expected wins: 1 * 3/4
Edit: see comment below
Edit 2, see the other comment below where the probability of prediction can be of 1/2, in this case: Expected losses: 2* 1/2, wins: 1/2 so you should not play