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A comment on P(doom). Parent comment

Re:P(doom) by goatlover on Sunday September 13, 2026 @02:22AM (#49680613)
Problem with p doom is I have no way to seriously evaluate anyone's percentage. The best I can do is rely on experts in a given field, like the recent virologist making a convincing case that no teenager is going to be prompting a doomsday virus into existence, because one doesn't exist and is unlikely to be made. There are too many biological tradeoffs and extremely difficult steps to doing so.

So I'm going to assume that the p doom for bioweapons is 0 in terms of existential threat (pandemics kill millions but not everyone).

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Re:P(doom) by chis on Wednesday September 16, 2026 @09:32PM (#49735365)
Personally I didn't find that guy very convincing. I think current frontier AI would already probably enable a non-expert to do gain-of-function work on a virus which could result in something like Covid.

And AI looks to keep getting better, and if it does then I don't see why it wouldn't become superhuman in virus design too.

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