> I don't think you can learn how to work in a machine shop safely from a book. Or recognize when a complex design is heading towards being unworkable.

This strikes me as something one learns very slowly over time. Safety takes time to internalize after close calls or seeing people get hurt. Same with complexity, it takes going through project after project to get a gut feeling for what works and what doesn't.

Parents also develop the ability to see several seconds into the future with regard to their toddlers and small children.

Right! Maybe the longer into the future the older the kid is. It's hard to predict past 1s sometimes what my toddler is going to do. The older one, I'd bet on the outcome within a couple seconds.

It’s because miles driven decreases with age not because old people drive safer.

After accounting for miles driven, fatal crash rates start increasing around age 70, peaking at 85+ near a level equal to the rate of 16-19 year old drivers, based on a preliminary skimming of the data I could find.

Based on anecdotal evidence and experience, I absolutely believe that. Just a few weeks ago near me an elderly driver caused a crash that killed herself and a passenger in another car when she failed to follow a curve and drove head-on into opposing traffic on a road with a 40MPH speed limit.

The nightmare of every machinist: salespeople and customers visiting the floor.

I think “older drivers” pay less primarily because of risk aversion, not hypothetical driving wisdom.

I think “older drivers” pay less primarily because of risk aversion (naturally increasing with reducing hormones production etc), not hypothetical driving wisdom.

risk aversion is driving wisdom.

Rule #1 - never go if you can’t see.

> risk aversion is driving wisdom

And apples are oranges.

Sorry they are completely different traits. They can go hand in hand or support each other in certain individual, or they can manifest similarly, but its far from being a general rule.