News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data... by bryanlarsen on Wednesday August 26, 2026 @02:30PM (#49453638)
It's really nice to see a simulator that removes the home country bias. So many of these types of simulations use American data. But that's pretty extreme cherry-picking: America has had a pretty exceptional run these last 100+ years. Any retirement simulator cannot assume that America's exceptional growth will continue. Maybe it will, but you cannot plan on a maybe.
Re:Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data... by nhootan on Wednesday August 26, 2026 @03:11PM (#49454245)
Thanks, that's most of why I built it. A US only backtest is one draw where you already know who won. This is 25 countries over 125 years, block bootstrapped with the domestic country resampled, so something like Japan after 1990 shows up.
Re:Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data... by bryanlarsen on Wednesday August 26, 2026 @03:20PM (#49454386)
Do you have Germany 1914 in your dataset? There's no safe withdrawal rate for that particular data point...
Re:Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data... by nhootan on Wednesday August 26, 2026 @03:41PM (#49454688)
The Germany's data is in since 1901, but there is a gap between 1922-1923, cause the underlying dataset, DMS, has no bonds data for that period.