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Re:Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data... by jawns on Wednesday August 26, 2026 @02:10PM (#49453388)
I got 82.4% regardless of whether I started with a portfolio value of $1M or $3M.

Something is wrong with the calculations/simulations.

If I can't trust the Quick Check, why would I trust anything else on the site?

Re:Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data... by Eric714 on Wednesday August 26, 2026 @02:13PM (#49453419)
That's because the withdrawals are 4%. If you have $3M, maybe lower the withdrawals to 1.25%. That would be the same as 4% of $1M.
Re:Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data... by jawns on Wednesday August 26, 2026 @02:17PM (#49453478)
I don't think that's accurate.

If I withdraw 4% of a $1M portfolio, I only have $960K left to compound.

If I withdraw 4% of a $3M portfolio, I should have $2.88M left to compound.

If the question is "Will your money last?" I would not expect the simulation results to be identical.

Edit: I failed here. Downvotes are right. I simulated it myself and saw the results. Leaving this comment here so others can learn from my mistake.

Re:Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data... by Eric714 on Wednesday August 26, 2026 @02:11PM (#49453395)
Same here
Re:Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data... by nhootan on Wednesday August 26, 2026 @02:50PM (#49453914)
That result is right. The Quick Check takes a withdrawal rate, not a dollar amount, and runs with taxes off, so it's scale invariant: $1M at 4% and $3M at 4% are the same simulation times three.

That's what lets it be instant and anonymous, since the whole answer space fits in a small grid I ship to your browser. It stops being true once taxes are on, which is what the full builder does. The page should say so. I'll add a line.