From what I have heard from universities I have contacts at, enrollments have also plummeted. We might not have enough juniors anymore to train to check the slop machines.

I think the outcomes are very hard to predict, it depends a lot on both economical factors, technological factors (how much will LLMs still improve beyond benchmaxxing), societal factors, etc.

It's like the early internet where there was the whole gamut of opinions between 'its a nothingburger' to 'it's the democratic town square of the world'. In the end, it was neither.

Whoever gets it right will be called a visionary, but realistically nobody had a clue.

Maybe by the time juniors are needed and seniors are gone, seniors can just directly connect to Claude via some sort of neural interface. Claude can proceed to increase its training dataset by harvesting all the precious information and memories with each new neural connection. That way, when all of our meatware rots in the ground, and any memory of our existence fades into the void, we may continue to serve the one true God, the God we created, even in death.

And yet the most unproductive work at FAANNG arises from huge bureaucratic turfy fiefdoms whose leadership games the productivity metrics to look busy. Broadly, workfare for ass kissers. And heaven forbid you work on anything that remotely resembles their dominions.

Counterpoint: reducing most of these metastatic organizations to 2-pizza level teams with AI would be positive across the board.

Countercounterpoint: But since the overlords of these fiefdoms are not stupid, just malevolent, they'll use AI to tighten their grip and terrorize anyone who dare oppose them. Basically, organizational Ponzi.