The challenge will be getting developers to program for opengl/sdl/openal instead of directx, something they could already do on windows but have chosen to go the directx route. The mobile push has opened a lot of developers up to opengl ES and opengl in general sucks less now so this may not be as difficult a pitch as it would have been 5 years ago.
What would be really cool, is if valve decided to throw their weight behind building a direct 3d state machine for linux, I know there is work underway there but I would imagine valve could seriously speed that up along with being in a position to apply pressure to the video card manufacturers for support in a way that the OSS community simply can't.
> if another project implemented D3D on top of OpenGL
This is exactly what wine does.
Linux has even more hardware diversity than Windows, and the added complexity of multiple distributions and competing drivers (e.g. open source vs closed). And fans that will bite your head of if you don't support their favorite choices.
If Valve does it right, the SteamBox will define the baseline for gaming on Linux. Distributions targeted to home users will be sure to include the ABI's used by the SteamBox, and Linux gamers will buy hardware that is "similar, but better" than the SteamBox hardware to maximize the chance their Steam library will work on their PC.