P.S. If "clown-based LLMs" was an autocorrect-assisted typo for cloud-based, it was inspired. :-) If you typed that on purpose, it was also inspired. Have an upvote.
Before we get there, we'll have network connectivity to our desktop AI boxes at home. That's pretty good, too.
And if this clown-bot[1] boom is a bubble (as I believe it is), then it's just a matter of time before it pops. The blast radius is unknown, but at one end it seems likely to result in something between potentially-idle fabs that have already been mostly paid for. Idle factories are bad and it makes sense to avoid that even if it is expensive, so this means cheap hardware.
At the other end, it means failed companies with fabs that are sold for pennies on the dollar alongside a resolute unwillingness amongst the investors (who just had their asses handed to them) to start on Boom 2.0. This latter scenario would mean golden age of cheap hardware.
I think we'll be fine.
[1]: Yeah, clown is on purpose. It fits as a replacement in any technical parlance where "cloud" would be used. :)
... And I've just been agreeing with you on all points with this comment, haven't I? Time to wrap up the discussion, then: once total agreement is reached then there's not much point in continuing the discussion unless someone has something new to say, and I don't have anything new to say on this topic. See you around.
I don't think I'd want to rely upon having a rental pocket calculator to use. It could become unavailable at any time, for any reason. For something as common, inexpensive, and easy to find as pocket calculators have been for decades, renting one sounds crazy.
But that's the way that clown-based LLMs are: They're rented. They could disappear at any time.
And sure, I do use the bot to get some stuff done, anyway. I think of it as somewhat akin of the time-sharing computer systems of yore, where people absolutely rented (often far-away) computing resources to accomplish their work.
Those time-sharing systems were only temporary. The giants like Control Data Corp fell out of favor as computers became smaller, faster, and cheaper. (And then they came back in the shape of things like AWS, but that has a lot of non-technical things driving it; AWS is, strictly-speaking, completely optional.)
Unless we stop making computers smaller/faster/cheaper (which we haven't, despite the present-day supply/demand market blip) I think it is certain that we will get there again with LLMs, where the giants fall. Not this year, or next, but small systems will catch up.
And these little machines don't even have to win the race. They just have to be Good Enough.
So it seems inevitable that people like you and I will live to see fantastic local LLMs happening with affordable hardware that fits on a desk.
And then, eventually, into our pockets -- like a calculator.