Ukraine seems pretty paranoid about this, having backup suppliers for parts. Looks like they take efficiency hits and build more complicated things out of multiple discrete chips that would normally be ontegrated commercially so that they can go to suppliers in Oceania, eurasia, or eastasia depending on who is being helpful.

Which supplies? Batteries are produced everywhere. Power electronics are dime-a-dozen. IMUs, GPS chips, and CPUs are produced in Taiwan anyway.

If China/Taiwan kicks off, you're not getting new parts from Taiwan

The US can produce these chips. South Korea can also do that.

The US cannot produce most of what that TSMC can can. And those US factories aren't rolling yet either.

TSMC is absolutely critical for 'frontier' silicon but:

1. In a China/Taiwan conflict, China's not getting TSMC output either - Bear in mind that I doubt China would ever want to destroy TSMC though, so I'm talking about a naval blockade rather than artillery destroying the fabs.

2. Although SOTA chips are off the table, we could get older process node stuff. We could still build say, 2015-era chips. We had great missiles in 2015.

> In a China/Taiwan conflict, China's not getting TSMC output either

China has enough domestic electronics production to not care. Also, in the event of a war they would probably stockpile necessary parts.

> we could get older process node stuff. We could still build say, 2015-era chips.

If the factories producing those chips are still operational. Otherwise you end up in the exact same situation as Russia, for example. They have some barely functioning old factories producing extremely outdated chips on foreign equipment.

Most drones don't use anything cutting-edge. Even 15-year-old chips are more than enough.

You don't think neural networks are going to be a factor in drone wars? How far out do you think this prediction will hold?

Most drones are controlled by humans, so they don't need neural networks. Larger drones still don't use anything too advanced, as specialized neural networks actually don't need beefy hardware.

Maybe this will change in future, but the US still has enough semiconductor manufacturing capacity to produce a few million chips for drones.

You know that when there were COVID related supply chain disruptions to microchips coming out of Taiwan, Europe and the US actually found it impossible to make the right number of cars?