Re:New York City celebrates day without violent crime
by derleth on Thursday November 29, 2012 @04:04AM
(#4846851)
> Someone on Reddit posted that this could just be the effect of victims not being found, as in the perpetrators got better at hiding bodies.
The quickest way to support this would be to check the number of missing persons cases; specifically, check to see if the people who used to get murdered (presumably young minority males) are now going missing instead.
Re:New York City celebrates day without violent crime
by WettowelReactor on Thursday November 29, 2012 @09:56AM
(#4847973)
Yup, when the massive snow storm hit Baltimore 2 years ago their murder rate for that month was a historic low. As soon as the snow was cleared the crime rate returned to normal.
Re:New York City celebrates day without violent crime
by epo on Thursday November 29, 2012 @05:35AM
(#4847034)
Have the Beeb given up on editors for their website? The first sentence is so unlikely to be true, "a day entirely without violent crime", really? I could perhaps accept this if they added the word "reported". But the following statement that "Monday was the most bloodshed-free 24-hour period in recent history" is devoid of meaning, if a spokesman really said this then they should be fired. "Least bloodshed" has meaning, "most bloodshed-free" is simply idiotic. And yes, people who talk about "50% less" when they mean "half as much" are also exposing themselves as people who do not understand what they are saying. Hmmm, more coffee required.
Re:New York City celebrates day without violent crime
by coffeemug on Thursday November 29, 2012 @07:25AM
(#4847327)
There have been 366 murders so far this year in New York City, compared with 472 at this time last year.
As an ex-resident of NYC, while I applaud the fact that violent crime is at its lowest point in 50 years, I still think 366 murders per year (with a month to go) is appalling, big city or not. I'm not sure if murders are equally distributed across boroughs, but assuming they are, 366/5 = ~73 murders per year per borough, or a murder per borough every five days.
The goal should be zero, and we shouldn't rest until it's the norm. An improvement in statistics is great, but I don't exactly see it as a cause for celebration.
Re:New York City celebrates day without violent crime
by dagw on Thursday November 29, 2012 @07:47AM
(#4847380)
The goal should be zero, and we shouldn't rest until it's the norm.
Wouldn't that lead to a War on Drugs style situation? You'll basically end up throwing more and more resources and taking away more and more freedoms chasing smaller and smaller marginal returns.
Instead pick a realistic target that will make you look good compared to other cities in the world, say 2 pr. 100000 population or about 160 murders, and work towards that.
Re:New York City celebrates day without violent crime
by gecko on Thursday November 29, 2012 @09:21AM
(#4847779)
I hate to just bust out some stats here, but:
The average murder rate in the US is roughly 5.0 per 100,000 and falling [1]. NYC's population fluctuates between its 8.2 million residents in the evenings and closer to 10.5 million people during the day (due to commuters), but let's go with a conservative 8.5M for this calculation. In that case, we should expect 425 murders in a city this size. At 366 murders in 2012 by the end of November, we're on track to beating that average.
Murders are horrible, and I don't want to in any way say that a nonzero murder rate is good, but I actually do think that NYC's massive decrease in homicide over the last two decades is a cause for celebration. I didn't live here in the late 90s, but I have friends who did who would never have set foot in large swaths of Manhattan because they were simply too unsafe. These same people will happily go to a house party in Bed Stuy.
Are we done? No. Is this cause to celebrate? I think so. Celebrating major milestones on the road to improvement is normal and healthy. The only trick is not to conflate that celebration with you being "done." I don't think we're doing that.
Re:New York City celebrates day without violent crime
by leephillips on Thursday November 29, 2012 @10:09AM
(#4848055)
I grew up in NYC during the high-crime Lindsay/Koch years. I would apply some skepticism to crime statistics derived from police reports. While I don't doubt that violent crime is way down, it's also true that people tend not to bother to report many crimes, because the police don't seem to be interested. While I'm sure that most murders would end up in the official statistics, I know that plenty of assaults, etc. are just never reported.
Re:New York City celebrates day without violent crime
by Shivetya on Thursday November 29, 2012 @07:02AM
(#4847263)
they just didn't find that day's body(s).
really, if anything the title of the article is what is wrong with big cities. Why not celebrate a day in Afghanistan where a soldier or enemy combatant doesn't die.
It says the same thing, gee, 364 days of something bad.
The quickest way to support this would be to check the number of missing persons cases; specifically, check to see if the people who used to get murdered (presumably young minority males) are now going missing instead.
Maybe he meant the opposite, "50% more" versus "double"? If I had 50% more the next day, I would have 300 units of fish, not 400.
http://www.amazon.com/Innumeracy-Mathematical-Illiteracy-Its...
As an ex-resident of NYC, while I applaud the fact that violent crime is at its lowest point in 50 years, I still think 366 murders per year (with a month to go) is appalling, big city or not. I'm not sure if murders are equally distributed across boroughs, but assuming they are, 366/5 = ~73 murders per year per borough, or a murder per borough every five days.
The goal should be zero, and we shouldn't rest until it's the norm. An improvement in statistics is great, but I don't exactly see it as a cause for celebration.
Wouldn't that lead to a War on Drugs style situation? You'll basically end up throwing more and more resources and taking away more and more freedoms chasing smaller and smaller marginal returns.
Instead pick a realistic target that will make you look good compared to other cities in the world, say 2 pr. 100000 population or about 160 murders, and work towards that.
The average murder rate in the US is roughly 5.0 per 100,000 and falling [1]. NYC's population fluctuates between its 8.2 million residents in the evenings and closer to 10.5 million people during the day (due to commuters), but let's go with a conservative 8.5M for this calculation. In that case, we should expect 425 murders in a city this size. At 366 murders in 2012 by the end of November, we're on track to beating that average.
Murders are horrible, and I don't want to in any way say that a nonzero murder rate is good, but I actually do think that NYC's massive decrease in homicide over the last two decades is a cause for celebration. I didn't live here in the late 90s, but I have friends who did who would never have set foot in large swaths of Manhattan because they were simply too unsafe. These same people will happily go to a house party in Bed Stuy.
Are we done? No. Is this cause to celebrate? I think so. Celebrating major milestones on the road to improvement is normal and healthy. The only trick is not to conflate that celebration with you being "done." I don't think we're doing that.
[1]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States
So whilst it might no be impressive from your perspective I think it's amazing.
really, if anything the title of the article is what is wrong with big cities. Why not celebrate a day in Afghanistan where a soldier or enemy combatant doesn't die.
It says the same thing, gee, 364 days of something bad.
> Just a few months ago, residents were living through what one tabloid newspaper called the "summer of blood".
And so we see a major problem with news sources.