Tokens are a commodity, so the price should drop over the long term as more and more efficient compute comes online. However, in the short term, these foundation models are worth paying for. So I think we will continue to see the price creep up as investors push OpenAI and Anthropic to drive revenue growth.

It's hard to imagine a bright future for either company. The more hopeful analog might be Coca Cola & Pepsi. Both have a commodity product, but due to distribution networks and brand, they command a price premium. But it doesn't seem much fun to provide a high-volume low-margin commodity.