Re:'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarke...
by fwip on Thursday April 23, 2026 @02:39PM
(#47879723)
The payout is much higher if you make an unlikely thing happen. "Unlikely things" in politics & warfare are probably highly correlated with irrational or irresponsible decisions.
[ Parent
| on HN ]
Re:'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarke...
by Dylan16807 on Thursday April 23, 2026 @11:32PM
(#47885172)
If you're in a decision-making position you have lots of events passing by. Your limits are in trying not to get caught, not in searching for the biggest ratios for single bets.
Also there's plenty of things that are unlikely because they're specific, not because they're irrational. Things happening in specific date ranges are an easy one.