Totally, that's the entire conjecture of this bot. My point is just that the odds of the underlying events are irrelevant, what matters is if they're matched with the betting price

It is not the entire conjecture of this bot. The dev claimed a percentage of bets that win with “no” and wrote some code to fuck around.

You though, are claiming that the market is perfectly priced, or should be, such that this strategy won’t work. It’s pretty hard to balance the odds of an animal seeing their shadow vs the expected strike price of the nasdaq. It’s clear you’re not familiar with betting markets, which is in your best interest most likely, but that’s not how this works.

You’re arguing against yourself… against a point nobody made but you.

You are either reading way too much into what I am saying or statistically illiterate.

Of course, they were just explaining the basics of statistics.