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A comment on We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do. Parent comment

Re:We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction... by woah on Thursday March 26, 2026 @06:55PM (#47536900)
> the more liquidity that gets dumped on a particular outcome, the more motivation there is to tamper with the real-world outcome

This only works if there are enough people betting on the other side. It's not some kind of magical money multiplication machine. As more stuff like the one-day Iran bet or the 64:56 minute press conference happen, people will avoid taking bets on highly specific outcomes.

On more reasonable bets like "war with Iran in the next 6 months", if there is some kind of shadowy cabal putting billions of dollars on the yes side, they just aren't going to have much upside if there isn't the same amount on the no side.

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Re:We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction... by sam0x17 on Friday March 27, 2026 @09:08PM (#47550459)
> It's not some kind of magical money multiplication machine

Right, it's not even consistent, the manipulation can go either way, at random, but what is sure is the higher the liquidity, the higher the motivation becomes to tamper

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