Hardly, after attacking all their friends in the region, which would leave them even more isolated after the war, I would not attribute careful strategic planning either

“Better to be feared than loved” - Niccolo Machiavelli

They were not mutual friends. They were mutually hostile.

And the friends are hosting american soldiers and bases.

Qatar and Oman were mutually hostile? that's a very unique interpretation of Middle Eastern politics

Do you think launching a dumb ICBM at New York would make the US put boots on the ground.

I kind of doubt it's enough. This wouldn't be another 9/11, it would be merely be retaliation.

> This wouldn't be another 9/11, it would be merely be retaliation

The Japanese and Al Qaeda framed their attacks defensively. An attack on the homeland is an attack on the homeland. I wouldn’t put it past Iran. But you’d rapidly see political consensus to ensure the regime is destroyed at all costs, including and up to leaving a power vacuum and humanitarian crisis.

It already looks like the US is sending marines over. Any excuse to make it more politically palatable would be latched onto.

the war is wildly unpopular in the US (rightfully so) - attacking US would rally the country (rightfully so) and regime would fall within a week (with significant casulties on our side)

Probably all true, except for the "within a week" part. We don't have nearly enough there yet to do that, and buildups take time.

9/11 was retaliation for US imperialism.

> their regime is not stupid

It’s pretty fucking stupid. Convening the top brass above ground, failing to scatter the navy, bombing Azerbaijan and Qatar and Oman. I’m not saying the individual actors are dumb. But the result of the competing centers of power between the IRGC, military proper, clerical establishment and god knows who else produces a stupid strategy.

what would be a non-stupid strategy?

Broadly, taking American and Israeli threats seriously. And not overestimating how easily their neighbors would capitulate if bombed.

Tactically, this would mean not concentrating senior leadership above ground. Scattering their navies out of port. Targeting U.S. military bases and not the civilian infrastructure around them.

Their regime is made up of hardline Shia Twelvers that believe that if they kill enough people the Twelfth Imam will appear and lead them to global victory.

Only problem is the Twelfth Imam has been dead for a thousand years.

They may not be stupid, but they consistently act based on counterfactual beliefs.

They're Muslims. You can debate whether that means 'stupid', but they've come to totally erroneous opinions on the structure of reality.

Equal to any other religion?

No, not equal. They're all varying amounts of stupid.

About the same amount of stupid as the other Abrahamics I'd say.

I disagree heavily with them too but that doesn't mean we should eradicate them. We can't expect the whole world population to be aligned.

But once we start shooting they will obviously shoot back and we're many steps further away from the desired "agree to disagree and live together anyway" outcome that is the only way to peace.

I mean the US tried this too with Afghanistan. Many lives lost, trillions of dollars wasted and everything was back to 'normal' in two weeks.

Change has to come from within and the thing is this was actually happening in Iran. Now with military law and the regime uniting people against a common enemy this is much further away.

first, what does it matter whether they are Muslims or not? second, what is the structure of reality?! you may have some notion you know what “reality” is given what your media allows you to think - the actual reality is vastly different than you think it is - that is a certainty