"It's rather obvious that this AI thing is a transformative event in world history" perhaps but it's not at all obvious how it's going to shake out or which bets are sensible.
I think you are missing the point, and also the very site you're posting on.
Look at the top 50 list of most valuable companies in the world. Over half of the total market value reported today is attributed to companies which were either dotcom startups or whose growth was driven by the dotcom growth period. Dismissing the advent of the internet as anything short of revolutionary is disingenuous, no matter how many zombo.com companies failed.
LLMs have the exact same transformative impact on humanity.
But this is begging the question.
Yes, we can see that the internet was radically transformative.
But you are arguing that this somehow proves that LLMs are too, when there's wildly insufficient evidence—either on where LLMs are going in themselves, or in the comparison—to credibly make that claim.
It's worth noting that SO was declining well before ChatGPT launched. It seems more likely that the decline of SO was more driven by Google ranking changes to prioritise websites that served Google ads. Certainly I remember having to go down a few results to get SO results for a while, even when the top results were just copypasta from SO.
I don't think that's it. SO was the go-to page for troubleshooting, whose traffic was not exactly originating from web search. Also, the LLM-correlated drop in traffic is also reported by search engines. Stack Overflow just so happens to be a specialized service with a very specialized audience whose demand is perfectly dominated by LLM chatbots.
Allow me to introduce you to the dot-com boom, where everyone who bet on the internet went broke.
I can be much more specific about “everyone” if you’d like.
Almost all people are "forgotten" by history.
In any case, people who were not even born yet in the 1990s are using the internet today, very successfully, so clearly you can wait.
It's clearly a textbook example of survivorship bias.
In the 90s the same argument was directed at this new thing called the internet, and those who placed a bet on it being a fad ended up being forgotten by history.
It's rather obvious that this AI thing is a transformative event in world history, perhaps more critical than the advent of the internet. Take a look at traffic to established sites such as Stack Overflow to get a glimpse of the radical impact. Even in social media we started to see the dead internet theory put to practice in real time.
And coding is the lowest of low hanging fruits.