That's not necessarily a result of AI, you also have to consider the broader economic environment. I mean, it was also difficult to get a job as a graduate in 2008, whereas it's typically been easier to get a job when credit is cheap.

It sure was, but as far as I'm aware, 2026 isn't in the middle of a generation-scale economic collapse.

(And if it is, what is the cause?)

There’s a difference between a collapse and a slowdown. We don’t need a collapse for hiring to slow down [1,2]. I think we’re finally just seeing the maturation of software development. Software is increasingly a commodity, so maybe the era of crazy growth and hiring is over. I don’t think that we need AI to explain this either, although possibly AI will simply commodify more kinds of software.

[1] https://www.npr.org/2026/02/12/nx-s1-5711455/revised-labor-d...

[2] https://www.marketplace.org/story/2025/12/18/expect-more-of-...

Isn't it, for something like 70-80% of families? Just in slow-motion?

How long have we been hearing about crushing affordability problems for property? And how long ago did that start moving into essentials? The COVID-era bullwhip-effect inflation waves triggered a lot of price ratcheting that has slowed but never really reversed. Asset prices are doing great, as people with money continue to need somewhere to put it, and have been very effective at capturing greater and greater shares of productivity increases. But how's the average waiter, cleaning-business sole-proprietor, uber driver, schoolteacher, or pet supply shopowner doing? How's their debt load trending? How's their savings trending?

Because of overhiring during the post-COVID free money glitch, not because of AI.

Aren't we both responding to an article which says:

> We find no systematic increase in unemployment for highly exposed workers since late 2022

It was fucked before AI became "mainstream" too. Companies overhired during and after covid.

Erm its been fucked for many years across many professions, it was just less so for software engineering in particular. Now entry into the S-E profession is taking a hit.

Also dont forget theres only so many viable revenue-generating and cost-saving projects to take. And said above - overhiring in COVID.

FAANG realizing that they can't make infinite money by expanding into every possible market while paying FAANG salaries for low-scale-CRUD-prototyping roles has a lot to do with this, and that started a bit earlier than the AI wave.

Lots going on right now in the market, but IMO that retreat is the biggest one still.

Many companies were basically on a path of infinite hiring between ~2011 and ~2022 until the rapid COVID-era whiplash really drove home "maybe we've been overhiring" and caused the reaction and slowdown that many had been predicting annually since, oh, 2015.

You can't be a manager without anyone to manage.

There's a lot of perverse interests and incentives at play.

Manager gigs at FAANG are pretty rough right now in my network, you can't be a manager when the higher-ups notice your group isn't a big revenue generator and so doesn't justify new hires and bigger org charts, and cutting the middlemen is the easiest way to juice the ROI numbers. If the ICs that now have 1/3 the managerial structure and have to wear more hats don't turn things around, oh well, it's not a critical area anyway, just nuke it.