Re:Nuclear War: An LLM Scenario
by pkaral on Thursday March 05, 2026 @07:35AM
(#47260905)
There are so many implicit premises in that short comment, such as:
- Incredibly smart people are always right when it comes to extremely complex systems involving both deterministic behavior and human psychology
- The people with the nuclear codes will be given their orders by (or themselves be) incredibly smart people
- Wargames work (they have a horrible track record)
- The best plans are based on a complete understanding of the starting conditions and the factors that influence the modelling (including the "unknown unknowns")
Re:Nuclear War: An LLM Scenario
by sigwinch on Sunday March 08, 2026 @09:19AM
(#47297109)
My experience is that wargaming has a decent track record. In hindsight, Nimitz looks much more prepared than MacArthur, even if their early careers suggest the opposite.
- Incredibly smart people are always right when it comes to extremely complex systems involving both deterministic behavior and human psychology - The people with the nuclear codes will be given their orders by (or themselves be) incredibly smart people - Wargames work (they have a horrible track record) - The best plans are based on a complete understanding of the starting conditions and the factors that influence the modelling (including the "unknown unknowns")
I could go on.