The money they raised is basically already spent.

On DRAM that hasn't even been fabbed yet. :(

Trying to create shortages etc is just typical Scam Altman behaviour and really speaks to how vulnerable he feels against Google's might.

There was a point where Google's existence was questioned, but they've been working away quietly and they'll win the long game. Altman viewed OAI as a way to reduce Google's AI dominance - I think when we look back in history it'll turn out he made it worse. Google wasn't all that interested in releasing LLMs out into the wild.

I tend to think you're right about Google. Just for the simple reason that webmasters everywhere try their best to keep OpenAI's crawlers out, while simultaneously trying their best to attract Google's.

"They were valued last week at $700+ billion weren't they?" So?

The money they have available is what is on the balance sheet, which they are burning right-through whilst facing immense competition and never-ending reinvestment, given that Google will carry on doing so. Cash flows from operations is a big fat negative.

I see Google first killing OAI, then eventually doing the same to Anthropic, once they figure out a suite of products that truly revolutionises the work of a sofware engineer beyond just talking to a chat interface, and bundle it into their existing offerings for enterprise.

I guess I just feel like when you're worth that much, you can be unprofitable for a very long time before it catches up with you. That's my perspective anyway, I could be wrong.

I agree that if anyone is going to kill OpenAI it's likely Google. They have even more funding and already have giant training indexes for search that they could likely leverage to improve their models in a way that OpenAI can't.

Thing is, that valuation is kind of based on vibes. If people get less enthusiastic about them (or just the sector in general), that valuation will go down. Their ability to raise money off it is limited.

Yeah it takes awhile for investors to start actually valuing things, they usually 'price' them which is mainly driven by mood and momentum.

Given that pricing is the name of the game, all should be wary of what interests founders and their employees who are paid via stock based compensation...