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Re:Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Bl... by scrumper on Tuesday February 24, 2026 @10:51AM (#47138635)
A bit of scorn coming your way in the replies but it's not necessarily intuitive if you haven't thought about it. Some analogies that might help:

- If I play roulette in a casino today, I might win big, break even, lose a little or lose a lot. If I play roulette in a casino every day for a decade, I can be nearly certain I will lose a lot.

- Consider an ant walking on a rough stone road built up the side of a hill. If you look at the ant at any particular second, its body might be pointing up (head higher than tail) or down (vice versa) or level, depending on what particular angle of rock it's on at that time. But measured over minutes its likely to be at a greater altitude above sea level than where it started. Measured over the hours it takes to get from the bottom to the top, it's definitely higher.

- A random day of the year (pick from 1-365) in England might be sunny or rainy, but the chances of it being sunnier are higher if the day picked is in the summer.

The point is that there's a tremendous amount of noise in short-term measurements which tend to smooth out over longer term where trends are more clearly revealed. That's the counterpoint to your argument and the reason why climate prediction is not the same as weather forecasting. Going back to the casino analogy, climate prediction is looking at your bank balance over decades; weather forecasting is deciding how to bet on a particular poker hand.

(And finally, we actually kind of do mostly know what's going to happen tomorrow, but not a week out; that's not the point you're making though.)

Re:Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Bl... by melling on Tuesday February 24, 2026 @12:02PM (#47139497)
We’ve been discussing it for 30 years.

Having some imbecile making the same stupid comment after 3 decades needs to be handled more critically

Let’s go back 40 years and listen to the warning:

https://youtu.be/3NvgJ1b6JXs?si=yUKcegVwfyNGi2rC

Re:Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Bl... by jkubicek on Tuesday February 24, 2026 @06:15PM (#47144854)
We should show @blell some grace. Not everybody is born knowing everything. Today is the day they learned about climate change.
Re:Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Bl... by asacrowflies on Wednesday February 25, 2026 @01:17PM (#47155405)
Grace is reserved for people with humility and a willingness to learn . Not self destructive suicidal death cult fools.