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A comment on Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Blizzard. Parent comment

Re:Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Bl... by trimethylpurine on Tuesday February 24, 2026 @09:08AM (#47137337)
That's not exactly true, it seems. Forecasts become less accurate the further out you go, unlike coin flips.

Weather forecasts are generally accurate about 90% of the time for a five-day forecast and around 80% for a seven-day forecast. Forecasts beyond ten days are only correct about half the time.

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Re:Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Bl... by triceratops on Tuesday February 24, 2026 @11:06AM (#47138814)
Why do you pack a light jacket if you go to Tasmania for a week in June, regardless of the forecast?
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Re:Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Bl... by InitialLastName on Tuesday February 24, 2026 @12:45PM (#47140088)
Why might you wear a life jacket on a boat, even though you're 99.9% likely not to have the boat flip over?
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Re:Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Bl... by triceratops on Tuesday February 24, 2026 @02:49PM (#47141880)
There's a difference between being slightly uncomfortable for a week and dying.
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Re:Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Bl... by baueric on Tuesday February 24, 2026 @10:09AM (#47138132)
you're conflating statistics and trends with discrete predictions
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Re:Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Bl... by trimethylpurine on Tuesday February 24, 2026 @12:39PM (#47140023)
Well, I'm not. The previous poster is. I'm more simply pointing out, without using terminology, that we shouldn't.
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