Re:Samsung posts $7.4 billion profit as handsets mask weak c...
by ZeroGravitas on Friday October 26, 2012 @07:59AM
(#4701804)
Personally I'm glad I didn't put any money on Asymco's predictions back when he thought Modular(i.e. Android + WinPhone combined) was going to be limited to 30% of the market (last time I checked Android was about 70% on it's own) and that the companies with the right idea where Interdependant (i.e. RIM and Nokia). Ouch.
What do you have to believe for an Android dominated future? (from end of 2010):
For an Android dominant future, several conditions must be met; one will need to believe all of these to be true:
* The addressable market for modular solutions will have to grow much faster than that of inter-dependent vendors. [The chart shows in-line growth--again due to the overall growth of the market. The green guys above won't just roll over.]
* The split of licenses between Android and Windows Phone within the addressable market must favor Android. [Again, this is unlikely as "politics" will interfere. (I won't even touch IP issues.)]
* The current modular vendors will not become inter-dependent or the current inter-dependent vendors will become modular. [Now why would they tear themselves apart if they are growing?]
* The profitability of Android vendors must be high enough to make modularity sustainable [more about this later.]"
So to believe in an Android dominated future, you'd need to believe 4 things, that he's sure won't happen, that all turned out to happen, and to an extreme degree (e.g. Android vs Winphone market share which he predicts at roughly 10/20 percentage points is more like 70/5, Samsung is clearly making Android profitable, Nokia shopped itself to both Android and Winphone and no-one would be surprised if RIM did likewise, etc. etc.). Does this mean he believes in an Android dominated future now? Somehow I doubt it.
What do you have to believe for an Android dominated future? (from end of 2010):
http://www.asymco.com/2010/11/03/what-do-you-have-to-believe...
quote:
"So what’s the bottom line?
For an Android dominant future, several conditions must be met; one will need to believe all of these to be true:
* The addressable market for modular solutions will have to grow much faster than that of inter-dependent vendors. [The chart shows in-line growth--again due to the overall growth of the market. The green guys above won't just roll over.]
* The split of licenses between Android and Windows Phone within the addressable market must favor Android. [Again, this is unlikely as "politics" will interfere. (I won't even touch IP issues.)]
* The current modular vendors will not become inter-dependent or the current inter-dependent vendors will become modular. [Now why would they tear themselves apart if they are growing?]
* The profitability of Android vendors must be high enough to make modularity sustainable [more about this later.]"
So to believe in an Android dominated future, you'd need to believe 4 things, that he's sure won't happen, that all turned out to happen, and to an extreme degree (e.g. Android vs Winphone market share which he predicts at roughly 10/20 percentage points is more like 70/5, Samsung is clearly making Android profitable, Nokia shopped itself to both Android and Winphone and no-one would be surprised if RIM did likewise, etc. etc.). Does this mean he believes in an Android dominated future now? Somehow I doubt it.