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Re:The risk of a hothouse Earth trajectory by SoftTalker on Wednesday February 11, 2026 @03:07PM (#46980152)
Water vapor (clouds) also reflects sunlight. So it's complicated. We know the planet has had higher CO2 and higher temperatures in the past, and it did not "run away"
Re:The risk of a hothouse Earth trajectory by fc417fc802 on Wednesday February 11, 2026 @03:21PM (#46980361)
No citations to hand but Antarctica used to be temperate rainforest and many of the conditions of present day tropical rainforests and savanna could be found much farther from the equator.

The paleocene–eocene thermal maximum makes for interesting related reading. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene%E2%80%93Eocene_therm...

Re:The risk of a hothouse Earth trajectory by panarchy on Wednesday February 11, 2026 @03:19PM (#46980338)
We can't say for sure that the current feedback loops will be identical to those that did or did not exist in the past. Differences in the initial state could result in different outcomes.

For example was there as much methane trapped in the arctics during the last time CO2 was high?

Does the rate of the increase of CO2 and temperature have an effect? Because it's currently getting hotter far faster (absurdly so) than any other period we have records for.

Re:The risk of a hothouse Earth trajectory by Windchaser on Wednesday February 11, 2026 @04:00PM (#46980886)
> Water vapor (clouds) also reflects sunlight. So it's complicated. We know the planet has had higher CO2 and higher temperatures in the past, and it did not "run away"

Yes. But stars like ours burn brighter as they move through their lifetimes, and the Sun is a bit brighter now than it was back when we had higher CO2 levels. That's why a runaway GHG didn't happen back then, but is basically guaranteed to happen within a billion years.

Re:The risk of a hothouse Earth trajectory by SV_BubbleTime on Wednesday February 11, 2026 @04:07PM (#46980981)
So… the sun is hotter now than it was what… since the 1950s? The 1850s? The Jurassic period? What scale is do you need to make this claim reasonable?

Also, I see a lot of things presented as facts in your comment, you seem to have convinced yourself quite thoroughly.

Re:The risk of a hothouse Earth trajectory by jemmyw on Wednesday February 11, 2026 @05:14PM (#46981965)
10% every billion years. So negligible on our timescale, but it is significant if you talk about ancient climate conditions like this thread does.
Re:The risk of a hothouse Earth trajectory by blueflow on Thursday February 12, 2026 @07:12AM (#46987805)
complex life on earth is half a billion years old (cambrian explosion 550ma ago), so the sun shouldn't be that much of an factor.
Re:The risk of a hothouse Earth trajectory by teamonkey on Wednesday February 11, 2026 @03:14PM (#46980261)
It might not run away to infinity, but it may well run away in the sense that the rate of change could continue to increase even if humans stop contributing to it.
Re:The risk of a hothouse Earth trajectory by viraptor on Wednesday February 11, 2026 @03:12PM (#46980230)
It doesn't matter if the top of the curve flattens out, if we can't survive outside of the bottom part that looks exponential.