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A comment on Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction.

Re:Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction by koolba on Tuesday January 20, 2026 @11:37AM (#46693921)
> One of the questions of the 2026 acx prediction contest is whether Nvidia’s stock price will close below $100 on any day in 2026.

Maybe I’m missing something, but isn’t this just a standard American put option with a strike of $100 and expiry of Dec 31st?

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Re:Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction by amelius on Tuesday January 20, 2026 @11:58AM (#46694296)
No because if it goes to $99.99, you don't win much. With a prediction contest it is either you win or you lose.
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Re:Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction by mklyachman on Tuesday January 20, 2026 @11:56AM (#46694258)
Not really. American put options will pay differently for 95 dollars vs 99 dollars, while this contract settles to 1 either which way.
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Re:Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction by throw-qqqqq on Tuesday January 20, 2026 @06:29PM (#46699102)
It’s a binary option.
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