Even if you can find someone to write you a weird, bespoke (and therefore expensive) derivative to hedge against the Trump DoT revoking thousands of CDLs, you've still only succeeded in moving all these calculations and risks to that counterparty. Somebody somewhere still has to have the headache of pricing this risk.

The insurance company can also just go bankrupt if they priced it incorrectly and then your hedge is worthless.

Ideally a reinsurer would be on the hook at that point.

Uncertainty has a cost which exists no matter where you move it around. Yes, investment banks might sell you some kind of exotic derivative which moves the risk onto them, but they'll charge a risk premium for this (probably a very high one since the risk factors here are pretty unusual and hard to model), and that makes it harder to stay afloat as a business. There is no handwaving away the damage that uncertainty does to commerce.

Seriously? What hedge contract you going to use for: 1) Wars, 2) a revocation of trucker drivers’ licenses (already happening in Cali), 3)deportations, 4)tariffs, 5) the collapse of USMCA

Oh, that's easy. Just make bets on Polymarket, which totally has no connection to anyone in the adminstration.

https://www.npr.org/2026/01/05/nx-s1-5667232/polymarket-madu...

War-risk insurance is a thing [1]. You could probably buy a business-interruption policy with a line item for revocations. Adding a tariff contingency to customer contracts and/or engaging with vendors on a fixed-price tariff-notwithstanding basis transfers tariff risk.

Deportatios and the collapse of a free-trade zone are not mitigatable. De-leveraging from products that don't have a strong domestic alternative would be the only options there.

All costs. None easy. But all doable. (Not saying it's good business.)

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_risk_insurance

Right, and then you lose the contract to someone who decided, rather than pricing in the risks, to have their hedge be "Idk guess I'll go bankrupt lmao" and bid as usual.