Re:US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year
by oceansky on Wednesday January 07, 2026 @11:52AM
(#46528771)
Why is the revocation taking place? Is it related to the federal government?
Re:US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year
by jldugger on Wednesday January 07, 2026 @11:55AM
(#46528838)
Related, yes. US DoT wants non-dom CDLs revoked[1]:
> The decision comes amid pressure from the U.S. Department of Transportation, which announced in November 2025 that it would compel California to revoke thousands of what it calls “illegally issued” non-domiciled Commercial Driver’s Licenses.
[1]: https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/california-cancellati...
Re:US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year
by klooney on Thursday January 08, 2026 @12:24AM
(#46537523)
There's been a big up about undocumented Sikh commercial drivers with CDL licenses, primarily because there have been some spectacular fatal crashes on video.
Re:US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year
by phyzix5761 on Wednesday January 07, 2026 @12:25PM
(#46529285)
Typically companies use things like futures, options, and forward contracts to fix or cap their input costs for commodities like oil. This lets them bid on projects without needing to know the future price of oil.
Re:US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year
by ElevenLathe on Wednesday January 07, 2026 @01:10PM
(#46530098)
Even if you can find someone to write you a weird, bespoke (and therefore expensive) derivative to hedge against the Trump DoT revoking thousands of CDLs, you've still only succeeded in moving all these calculations and risks to that counterparty. Somebody somewhere still has to have the headache of pricing this risk.
Re:US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year
by lesuorac on Wednesday January 07, 2026 @01:29PM
(#46530431)
The insurance company can also just go bankrupt if they priced it incorrectly and then your hedge is worthless.
Re:US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year
by nerdsniper on Wednesday January 07, 2026 @07:36PM
(#46535417)
Ideally a reinsurer would be on the hook at that point.
Re:US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year
by Analemma_ on Wednesday January 07, 2026 @01:14PM
(#46530164)
Uncertainty has a cost which exists no matter where you move it around. Yes, investment banks might sell you some kind of exotic derivative which moves the risk onto them, but they'll charge a risk premium for this (probably a very high one since the risk factors here are pretty unusual and hard to model), and that makes it harder to stay afloat as a business. There is no handwaving away the damage that uncertainty does to commerce.
Re:US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year
by DwnVoteHoneyPot on Wednesday January 07, 2026 @12:37PM
(#46529486)
Seriously? What hedge contract you going to use for: 1) Wars, 2) a revocation of trucker drivers’ licenses (already happening in Cali), 3)deportations, 4)tariffs, 5) the collapse of USMCA
Re:US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year
by kevinhanson on Wednesday January 07, 2026 @01:28PM
(#46530414)
Oh, that's easy. Just make bets on Polymarket, which totally has no connection to anyone in the adminstration.
https://www.npr.org/2026/01/05/nx-s1-5667232/polymarket-madu...
Re:US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year
by JumpCrisscross on Wednesday January 07, 2026 @01:27PM
(#46530382)
War-risk insurance is a thing [1]. You could probably buy a business-interruption policy with a line item for revocations. Adding a tariff contingency to customer contracts and/or engaging with vendors on a fixed-price tariff-notwithstanding basis transfers tariff risk.
Deportatios and the collapse of a free-trade zone are not mitigatable. De-leveraging from products that don't have a strong domestic alternative would be the only options there.
All costs. None easy. But all doable. (Not saying it's good business.)
Re:US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year
by BobaFloutist on Wednesday January 07, 2026 @04:34PM
(#46533243)
Right, and then you lose the contract to someone who decided, rather than pricing in the risks, to have their hedge be "Idk guess I'll go bankrupt lmao" and bid as usual.
Re:US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year
by eli_gottlieb on Thursday January 08, 2026 @01:24PM
(#46544521)
> Wars, a revocation of trucker drivers’ licenses (already happening in Cali), deportations, tariffs, the collapse of USMCA…the uncertainty is near endless.
So, uh, did business owners actually take any of these things, which very much were promised during campaign season, into account when voting? Or did they walk into the ballot box thinking, "no-one wants to work anymore!" and pull the lever for the guy promising to make applicants a bit more motivated to work at lower wages?
This is difficult even under normal circumstances because you have to predict what carrier (trucker) rates will be in the future. You also have to predict fuel costs, because even though these are usually variable, when fuel costs go up so does your margin (so if you expect higher fuel prices you can lower your bid price). And you have to game out what your competitors are going to bid too. You can’t be too conservative (expensive) or you won’t get the bid. But if you lock in a contract with a certain expectation of rates and it swings the other way, you’re on the hook for millions in losses.
Now imagine doing that normally difficult task in this environment. Who knows what will happen. Wars, a revocation of trucker drivers’ licenses (already happening in Cali), deportations, tariffs, the collapse of USMCA…the uncertainty is near endless. Big tech companies are doing great, everyone else is getting absolutely destroyed.