Don’t that have to make more money in the next 10 years than any company ever has… and that is just to break even.

It’s going to crash, guaranteed

It is the term "mathematically impossible" that caught my attention. Since it is about the future promise of OpenAI, one could debate the likelihood or "statistically improbable", but "mathematically impossible" implies some calculation, proof and certainty. Hence my curiosity.

I've seen some calculation I think from an HSBC analyst that it would take a monthly subscription of $200/mo. from some large portion of the US population for some insane number of years to break even.

> from some large portion of the US population

What a silly calculation.

OpenAI’s customer base is global. Using US population as the customer base is deliberately missing the big picture. The world population is more than 20X larger than the US population.

It’s also obvious that they’re selling heavily to businesses, not consumers. It’s not reasonable to expect consumers to drive demand for these services.

>OpenAI’s customer base is global.

I'd be willing to bet that, like many US websites, OpenAI's users are at lest 60% American. Just because there's 20x more people out there doesn't mean they have the same exposure to American products.

For instance, China is an obvious one. So that's 35%+ of the population already mostly out of consideration.

>It’s also obvious that they’re selling heavily to businesses, not consumers.

I don't think a few thousand companies can outspend 200m users paying $200 a month. I won't call it a "mathematical impossibility", but the math also isn't math-ing here.

Even if you grant that OpenAI might be as successful as Apple at international expansion and support, that’s still only a non-US market about double the size of the US market.

> OpenAI’s customer base is global.

Since when is English everyone's primary language?

ChatGPT is totally fluid in German and French (i.e.), their market size is my no means limited to the anglosphere.