Re:Congressional lawmakers 47% pts better at picking stocks
by IAmBroom on Wednesday December 03, 2025 @10:24AM
(#46135535)
You cherrypicked that last sentence, and reiterated what the N-1 sentence said.
Re:Congressional lawmakers 47% pts better at picking stocks
by bo1024 on Wednesday December 03, 2025 @11:43AM
(#46136641)
I think the point is that this study suggests a causal relationship (having leadership power enables one to make more money), which is stronger than just correlation (being in leadership positions correlated with making more money).
Re:Congressional lawmakers 47% pts better at picking stocks
by johndhi on Wednesday December 03, 2025 @11:26AM
(#46136396)
But added "annually"! That's a lot better!
Re:Congressional lawmakers 47% pts better at picking stocks
by roughly on Wednesday December 03, 2025 @01:42PM
(#46138269)
Here’s the strongest steel man I can provide:
A person typically picks stocks based on some view of the future: what’s going to be valuable, how the world is going to change, etc. Presumably, a congressperson does the same when drafting legislation - try to move the world in the direction they think it should go. The underlying worldview and outlook is the shared variable, and congresspeople in leadership positions are more capable of moving the world the way they think it should go than anyone else. The increased stock performance is because someone in congressional leadership’s predictions for the future are more self-fulfilling than most.
(Again, that’s the best steel man I can offer, and if you made it this far without laughing, I commend you)
Re:Congressional lawmakers 47% pts better at picking stocks
by gblargg on Wednesday December 03, 2025 @02:09PM
(#46138594)
Just require their stock allocations to be made public and anyone can follow their example.
Re:Congressional lawmakers 47% pts better at picking stocks
by diehunde on Wednesday December 03, 2025 @02:44PM
(#46139043)
Aren't they required to make their stock trades public?
Re:Congressional lawmakers 47% pts better at picking stocks
by downrightmike on Wednesday December 03, 2025 @03:00PM
(#46139256)
Positive assortative matching aka rotten eggs stick together
It's even more damning than that I think.
>we find that lawmakers who later ascend to leadership positions perform similarly to matched peers beforehand but outperform them by 47 percentage points annually after ascension.
The same person makes more after being put in a leadership position than before. That essentially removes any possibility of 'well maybe they're just more knowledgable and that's why they're in leadership.'