> Another subjective one: A lack of undergraduate math may make learning about certain topics more challenging.

You're making a common but often mistaken assumption -- that "unschooled" equals "uneducated". The fact that a person doesn't have a degree doesn't mean he knows no math or physics.

> It will be used as an excuse to pay you less money

That's certainly true. The unanswered question is whether the increase in salary accompanying a college degree equals the cost of student loans to get the degree in the first place.

This is my back-of-the-envelope speculation:

Suppose you go to UC Berkeley for CS. A nice, round, accurate number for that is ~$52,000/year. Suppose you work during for two of those years (I did, not everyone can), and your overall obligations are $208,000 for four years, less your wages -- say a meager $18,000/year. Also, you would have had to pay rent whether you went to school or not, so that is not truly a cost of the education. Let's say your rent is a $900/mo, so ~$11,000/year. Plus books and supplies, which may be as high as $2,000/year.

So we have roughly $140,000 for four years of education at a top notch program.

The other part of the equation requires more voodoo. I don't know off-hand what the numbers are for educated v. unschooled programmers. My anecdotal evidence for Cal alums is that entry-level offers are mostly in the $80-90,000 range, with a few as high as $100,000. Within five years, everyone I know of is solidly within the $120-$150,000 range of pay. Unless they've gone the startup route, in which case they are electing for minimal pay.

Personally, my expectation would be, having done hiring in the past and now, that there would be very few unschooled devs who could break $120,000. If you are very conservative in your estimate then, let's say the unschooled and the educated dev are separated by $10-$20,000 until year four -- so little advantage for the first four years. After year five, the educated dev pulls ahead, and by year ten is earning $160,000 whereas the unschooled dev has maxed out and is receiving only $120,000 plus COLA pay increases. So conservatively, by year ten, the gap in pay has already covered or will soon cover the cost of the education.

This also does not reflect the fact that because getting into the front door is not even possible in many places unless you have a degree, you cannot access any of the opportunities for startup equity. In my opinion, the gains in opportunity are far and away the more valuable win with a degree.

And yet, my favorite programmer, John Carmack, only attended university for two semesters.

By your numbers, someone going straight into the workforce could save about $50,000 each of the first four years the peers are in school, amounting to ~$2M by the time the person approaches retirement age. That is compared to the ~$3M that could be made by the gains in post-graduation income by retirement. However, the cost of the $140,000 education by the time you reach retirement is ~$1M so you have really only just compensated for the education with the higher income. And all that assumes that you will be able to earn more with said degree. While it certainly happens, I am doubtful that it holds true for all graduates. There is a lot of financial risk there, for what appears to be little to no monetary reward even when you do win.

With that said, there are a near infinite number of positive reasons to partake in a post-secondary education. It doesn't need to come with better jobs and higher incomes to make it worthwhile. I find it rather sad that many feel we have to resort to showing higher future incomes to even justify going.

> In my opinion, the gains in opportunity are far and away the more valuable win with a degree.

It is a very simple question of cost versus benefit. And tuition rates are rising so fast that any conclusion arrived at by calculation is necessarily a temporary one:

Washington Post: "Chart of the day: College tuition is out of control" [2011]:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/chart-of...

A quote: " ... since 1978, college tuition and fees have been getting expensive at a much, much faster rate than even medical care"

Your choice of school greatly changes how fast you'll repay your schooling.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/which-colleges-help-grads-s...

Additionally, going to school doesn't have to saddle you with debt, because it doesn't preclude you from working at the same time. I think it says a lot about a person if you're able to work and keep up your grades.

Does UC Berkeley really cost $52K per year on tuition? I thought it's a state funded public school. Just curious.

Allegedly, yes: http://students.berkeley.edu/finaid/home/cost.htm

These are total costs, not just tuition.

You can learn almost everything you listed as a "Con". It's not always easy, but you learn as you go. I've picked up a lot on the go and for everything else I have to be honest with myself and spend more time on it (e.g. evening, weekend or take a course).

I don't have a degree either. I just never stop learning. I'm sure it would be similar with a degree. All in all, I am doing pretty awesome. I could have a lot of different jobs if I felt like it. And no one has asked me for a degree in maybe 10 years (I turned 30 last year).

The promotion part and the HR part – I think it depends on what kind of company you want to work for.

I don't see a reason to waste away my talent in an environment which doesn't appreciate what I bring to a table. If they would rather promote someone else because they have a degree, then I am in the wrong spot.

If those are your challenges, you might work for the wrong people. Reading this makes me a little sad.

> If those are your challenges, you might work for the wrong people. Reading this makes me a little sad.

No need to be sad :) I'm actually well-compensated and have a job I enjoy. It's just that I have "been around the block" and wanted to share my trials and tribulations.