> For the developed world, climate change will be annoying but not serious.

Spillover of problems like mass migration away from the equator and increase in conflicts.

Also increased threat of far-right rule in democracies and general dehumanizing attitude toward people in trouble.

That's not a prediction, it's a current reality. It's already prescribed by calling circumstances people have no control over as "being in trouble".

It's certainly not wrong. If someone smashes your windows at night, robs you, you're in trouble.

If you're being threatened with a weapon, you're in trouble.

If you're unlawfully detained, you're in trouble, as much as you are in trouble when you're detained for a good reason.

But you're also in trouble when you leave your house in a freezing night and don't remember to put your keys in your pocket.

Dehumanizing people who are "in trouble" is as old as humanity itself.

Rape victims are also in trouble.

Even worse, trouble tends to accumulate and amplify existing trouble.

Some people think that's just how the world works.

It's certainly how a world of animals works.

And a "fair" world is hard to imagine, the human condition is partly an attempt to achieve it though.

Food supply chains disrupted. Piracy will increase and spread.

Basically, the spherical cow mindset of "just police the borders harder" is wishful thinking. The world is interconnected in multiple aspects, not just physical borders. Even if you succeed in immunising yourself from all side effects, your immediate neighbor may not be successful, and the instability can come for you through many mechanisms. Prices of food, breakup of the EU, wars, authoritarianism in your own society. Just look at Canada dealing with tariffs through little fault of their own. It's as easy as declaring yourself as immune from international instability.

One of the reasons the best time to make sure every first-world country is self reliant was yesterday; the second best time is today.

Another spherical cow solution.

I wonder how software engineers will fare in a “self reliant” economy. Do unvested stocks work in a barter?

Without trade interdependenncies wars seem much more attractive to powerhungry leaders of countries, engineers can probably earn a living building killer ai robots.

Careful to what you wish for.

Autarky can be often found in 19th century literature. The one we hopefully don't want to have or produce anymore.

Thats one of those things that, once it gets bad enough, it will be solved rapidly with automated sentry turrets or similar technology and will turn into an annoying logistics problem of keeping the sentry turrets armed. It isn't correct to point at that as the thing thatcmakes the original statement untrue.

As long as you classify as annoyances the overheat deaths of many poorer and/or frailer (and a few wealthy-but-unlucky) members of your developed world, then indeed you can call this annoying. Also you can drop the "will be" and start using "is".

I have been waiting for our leaders to realize we need to build seawalls (not just New York- covering both coasts). Some large contractors are going to make a lot of money.