Andrej Karpathy – AGI is still a decade away

Re:Andrej Karpathy – AGI is still a decade away by zurfer on Friday October 17, 2025 @05:30PM (#45622320)

Well you wouldn't bet all your assets because it would be an illiquid market that could only resolve in your favor in earliest 80 years.

If you're really serious about it put the money into a prediction market. Poly market has multiple AGI bets.

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Re:Andrej Karpathy – AGI is still a decade away by yodsanklai on Friday October 17, 2025 @06:49PM (#45623045)

I see only one with 4% chance in 2025 (obviously...). And AGI is defined as "OpenAI announces they reached AGI".

https://polymarket.com/event/openai-announces-it-has-achieve...

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Re:Andrej Karpathy – AGI is still a decade away by encroach on Friday October 17, 2025 @08:06PM (#45623585)

Here's 46% for 2030. It's had $350k in volume across the 4 markets.

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxoaiagi/openai-achieves-agi/oaia...

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Re:Andrej Karpathy – AGI is still a decade away by echoangle on Friday October 17, 2025 @08:57PM (#45623882)

That’s also about OpenAI claiming they have AGI. That doesn’t resolve based on actual AGI.

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Re:Andrej Karpathy – AGI is still a decade away by tim333 on Friday October 17, 2025 @09:20PM (#45624017)

I wonder if there is a test for AGI which is definite enough to bet on? My personal test idea is when you can send for a robot to come fix your plumbing rather than needing a human.

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