CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

Re:CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter... by m101 on Thursday September 11, 2025 @09:53AM (#45211717)

12*0.4% is 4.8%

Inflation is running at an annualised 4.8%. The 2.9% number is backward looking.

Sure monthly inflation is more volatile, but the direction of travel is up, and that running average of 2.9% will be increasing slowly as it incorporates the recent higher prints.

Edit: the seasonally adjusted change is 0.4% actually, with the monthly change 0.3%

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter... by jakelazaroff on Thursday September 11, 2025 @10:03AM (#45211835)

Aren't you slightly undercounting? If inflation compounds, 0.4% inflation a month would be 1.004^12 = 4.9%.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter... by m101 on Thursday September 11, 2025 @11:00AM (#45212472)

Yes you're right

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter... by bitshiftfaced on Thursday September 11, 2025 @10:33AM (#45212187)

This MoM increase was higher than about 70% of previous changes on the same interval. It's not so extreme that we can reasonably infer from it a looming disaster. Looking at the 7 month change (year to date), 63% of the time you'd see a higher increase than this. The "direction of travel is up", but that's almost always the case.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter... by jlongr on Thursday September 11, 2025 @09:56AM (#45211753)

You concede that monthly inflation is volatile but then proceed to assume it is has grown uniformly and speculate that it will continue to grow uniformly? Umm...

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter... by UncleMeat on Thursday September 11, 2025 @10:01AM (#45211825)

The point is that the annual number is often rather confusing from a reporting perspective.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter... by m101 on Thursday September 11, 2025 @11:00AM (#45212467)

And that an annual number is diluted and will only feed in slowly over time.

If we knew inflation was permanently at 5% from now on, a blend with 2% for 11 months and 5% for 1 month, is not informative.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter... by jlongr on Thursday September 11, 2025 @11:26AM (#45212762)

Pointless observation.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter... by jlongr on Thursday September 11, 2025 @11:22AM (#45212706)

They said: "12*0.4% is 4.8%. Inflation is running at an annualised 4.8%."

This is patently wrong.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter... by readthenotes1 on Thursday September 11, 2025 @05:12PM (#45216156)

Because it's 1.04^12?

Or are you addressing some other flaw?

[ Parent | on HN ]